Fire SlimesTier 1
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.1 |
| Wind Allies | 15.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.2% | +1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blissful Calling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Tera | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |